7-2 loss for Crew to end pre-ASG portion

The Brewers finished their final roadtrip of the pre-ASG portion of the ’07 season, dropping the rubber match to the Nationals, 7-2.
Thankfully, the Cubs also lost, so the Crew’s 49-39 pre-ASG mark remains good enough for a 4 game (in the loss column) lead over the second-place Northsiders.
The Nats’ Tim Redding stymied the Crew’s bats all afternoon–Redding took a 1-0 lead with him into the 6th, when Prince Fielder drove in Chris Capuano and Ryan Braun to give the Crew a temporary 2-1 lead. But the floodgates opened on Cappy in the bottom of the 6th, as Cappy allowed 6 ER’s in the 6th…three of which came on a bases loaded double by former Brewer Ronnie Belliard off of reliever Matt Wise (Cappy had put on the three base runners, however).
One estimate still has the Brewers’ chances of making the playoffs at around 70%…this algorithm is based on each team having a 50/50 chance of winning each game…after the break, the Brewers have 38 home games (of which they’ve won 69.8% this year) and 36 road games (of which they’ve won 42.2%)…and still 13 games against the Cincinnati Reds.