Arbitration numbers out…how’d I do?

Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin managed to get one deal done before Tuesday’s deadline to exchange arbitration figures with the players’ agents–OF Kevin Mench inked a one-year, $3.4 million dollar deal. Five contracts remain pending, and here are the actual submitted contract amounts, courtesy of ESPN.com:
Chris Capuano:
PREDICTED Brewers’ offer: $3.5 million; ACTUAL: $2.8 million
PREDICTED Player’s request: $4.25 million; ACTUAL: $3.7 million
…I was high on both–$0.7 million on the Brewers’ figure; $0.55 million on what Cappy would ask for.
The midpoint of $3.25 million would be a bargain for the Brewers, considering the Reds’ offered Aaron Harang $4.25 million (and Harang is asking for $5.5 million).
Billy Hall:
PREDICTED Brewers’ offer: $2.75 million; ACTUAL: $3.0 million
PREDICTED Player’s request: $3.5 million; ACTUAL: $4.125 million
…I was low on both; I think Hall’s price is out of whack…I mean, Alex Rios is only asking for $3.1 million. If Hall gets offered the midpoint of $3.5625 with either an incentive or option for ’08, he should take it. Hall’s request is 37.5% more than what Melvin offered, and it will be interesting to see if Melvin caves in or if they gamble on going to arbitration. Either way, these figures, combined with Hall only accepting a one-year deal for ’06, are clear signs that he is interested in becoming a free agent and leaving for the highest bidder…no hometown discounts here, folks.
Johnny Estrada:
PREDICTED Brewers’ offer: $3.75 million; ACTUAL: $3.0 million
PREDICTED Player’s request: $4.5 million; ACTUAL: $3.9 million
…I was high on both; $3.45 million for the midpoint seems fair for someone changing ballparks—there is some risk on the Brewers’ part that he won’t hit as well here.
Tony Graffanino:
PREDICTED Brewers’ offer: $2.6 million; ACTUAL: $2.8 million
PREDICTED Player’s request: $3.25 million; ACTUAL: $3.7 million
…I was low on both; funny that Doug Melvin thinks that Graffy is worth the same as Cappy; Graffy should take the midpoint of $3.25 if it is offered to him.
Claudio Vargas:
PREDICTED Brewers’ offer: $1.7 million; ACTUAL: $2.15 million
PREDICTED Player’s request: $2.1 million; ACTUAL: $2.85 million
I was low on both…Vargas’ figure is almost as funny as Doug Davis’s of $7.5 million, so Vargas will be a bargain for the Crew, regardless of the outcome. The midpoint of $2.5 million seems more than fair, considering Capuano will likely only make $0.75 million more as the #2 starter.
David Hannes
Copyright 2007

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