My Arbitration Predictions

Well, well, well…if I recall correctly, I made predictions on final salaries and contracts for arbitration-eligible players last year, so I thought I’d try again (practice makes perfect, eh?). As 1) my computer is old and runs very slow, and 2) I’m kinda lazy, I’ll just post my thoughts and let you, our beloved readers, do the digging of comparable salaries to inform me where I’m too high or too low…so without further ado:
Recall that I already posted:
Some quick numbers then…Capuano will make at least $3.25 million, as will Estrada; Graffanino will get at least $2.5 million, as should Billy Hall; Mench should get at least $3.5 million (I’ve heard closer to $5 million, but who really knows these days?)...
Chris Capuano:
’06 salary: $450,000, 3 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $3.5 million
Player’s offer: $4.25 million
End Result: $3.85 million for ’07; $4.15 million for ’08; club option for $5.5 million for ’09 or $0.5 million buyout. Capuano wants some security, and a 2-year deal for $8 million will make him a happy camper.
Billy Hall:
’06 salary: $418,000, 4 years experience (3 of which as a reserve)
Brewers’ offer: $2.75 million
Player’s offer: $3.5 million
End Result: $3.0 million for ’07 only, plus $0.5 million in incentives…Hall rejected a multi-year deal last year, but will settle to avoid a hearing…and Melvin will want to keep his budding superstar happy, giving him some incentives to reach his submitted arbitration figure.
Johnny Estrada:
’06 salary: $2.0 million with 5 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $3.75 million
Player’s offer: $4.5 million
End Result: $4.0 million for ’07 with $250,000-$300,000 in incentives, $5.0 million for ’08, with club option for $6.5 million for ’09 or $1.5 million buyout. Melvin wants to lock-up Estrada, yet be somewhat cautious.
Kevin Mench:
’06 salary: $2.8 million, 4 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $3.5 million
Player’s offer: $4.25 million
End Result: Arbitration panel sides with the Brewers and Mench gets a one-year deal for ’07 for $3.5 million.
Tony Graffanino:
’06 salary: $2.05 million, 10 years (mostly as a reserve)
Brewers’ offer: $2.6 million
Player’s offer: $3.25 million
End Result: Arbitration panel awards Graffanino the $3.25 million; Graffanino holds out and is rewarded for his experience.
Claudio Vargas:
’06 salary: $1.275 million, 3 years experience
Brewers’ offer: $1.7 million
Player’s offer: $2.1 million
End Result: $1.825 million for ’07; I forgot about Vargas’ contract in my earlier post; Vargas’ agent will want to avoid arbitration, and settle for less than the midpoint.
Okay, then…fire away!
David Hannes
Copyright 2007

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