Brewers ZiPS Projections: Our Pitching Stinks

 

Another set of projections to look at, as the ZiPS projections are out.  Compared to the glitchy set of PECOTAs released a few days ago, these look a bit better, although things still aren’t all that rosy when it comes to the starting rotation.

Here’s how they say the starting lineup will fare:

C Gregg Zaun – .243/.345/.373, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 92 OPS+ (94 games)

1B Prince Fielder – .277/.383/.552, 41 HR, 142 RBI, 145 OPS+ (160 games)

2B Rickie Weeks – .240/.345/.419, 12 HR, 43 RBI, 103 OPS+ (90 games)

3B Casey McGehee – .263/.316/.397, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 89 OPS+ (126 games)

SS Alcides Escobar – .269/.312/.369, 7 HR, 63 RBI, 81 OPS+ (146 games)

LF Ryan Braun – .295/.359/.554, 36 HR, 132 RBI, 138 OPS+ (154 games)

CF Carlos Gomez – .250/.308/.369, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 79 OPS+ (136 games)

RF Corey Hart – .263/.323/.453, 18 HR, 86 RBI, 104 OPS+ (137 games)

Other lines of note:

CF Jody Gerut – .267/.321/.443, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 101 OPS+ (115 games)

CF Jim Edmonds – .225/.327/.422, 10 HR, 37 RBI, 98 OPS+ (71 games)

C Jonathan Lucroy – .245/.326/.378, 11 HR, 72 RBI, 87 OPS+ (136 games)

3B Mat Gamel – .239/.312/.382, 13 HR, 73 RBI, 84 OPS+ (140 games)

As far as pitchers go, Yovani Gallardo is projected for a pretty solid year, and Randy Wolf is predictably hovering around the 4.00 ERA mark.  Things aren’t so rosy for Manny Parra and Jeff Suppan.

Yovani Gallardo – 13-7, 3.51 ERA, 163 K, 69 BB, 127 ERA+ (153.2 IP)

Randy Wolf – 10-8, 4.05 ERA, 136 K, 57 BB, 110 ERA+ (173.1 IP)

Dave Bush – 8-9, 4.64 ERA, 107 K, 46 BB, 96 ERA+ (153.1 IP)

Manny Parra – 8-10, 5.17 ERA, 117 K, 69 BB, 87 ERA+ (139.1 IP)

Jeff Suppan – 8-12, 5.33 ERA, 86 K, 68 BB, 84 ERA+ (170.2 IP)

Not exactly optimistic projections for the last two, but then again, they didn’t do much in 2009 to create a lot of optimism for this season.  I do think Parra is entirely capable of putting up a 4.50 ERA or better this year, in which case the rotation looks quite a bit better.  As far as Suppan, I continue to count down the days until he’s no longer a burden.

Overall, these projections look to be a bit better than some of the ones we’ve seen this offseason.  Poor lines from Escobar and Gomez are to be expected, but the biggest surprise to me was Mat Gamel’s projection.  I realize that his numbers from last season didn’t give any of the projection systems much to work with, but you’d have to imagine that he’d be able to do better than an OPS+ of 84 if he played in 140 games.  Rickie Weeks’ line also seems pretty low considering how well he started last season, but it’s entirely possible he has trouble getting back to that level after another wrist injury.

Still, it’s important to take projections with a grain of salt, especially when it comes to players who haven’t racked up a lot of playing time in the majors.

 

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