The folks at Baseball Prospectus caught a lot of flak for their inconsistent PECOTA projections, which at the last time I looked, had the Brewers winning around 79 games.
The CHONE system is a bit more optimistic about the Brewers’ chances, but we knew that back when the individual player projections came out a month or two ago (projections for batters and pitchers). Under the CHONE system, the Brewers go 81-81 and tie for second in the NL Central.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that CHONE is also more optimistic about the Cardinals, projecting them for 91 wins. So while the Brewers are being penciled in for more wins under CHONE than any other system I’ve seen, they’re also the furthest behind the division leader.
Other interesting notes about the CHONE: Houston finishes in last instead of Pittsburgh (something Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke is pumped about), Atlanta beats out Philly in the NL East, Texas beats out LA and Oakland in the AL West, and the NL West is returning to mediocrity. Overall, pretty typical, but at least it’s something to look at while we wait for pitchers and catchers to report (15 days, by the way).