Brewers Have Nowhere to Go but Up

narveson
In case you were wondering how the Brewers ended up with the worst road record in baseball entering the last day of May:

Batting Average: .223, 30th in MLB
OBP: .279, 30th in MLB
SLG: .340, 28th in MLB
Isolated Power: .117, 23rd in MLB
BABIP: .257, 29th in MLB
wOBA: .275, 30th in MLB
Line Drive%: 15.6%, 29th in MLB
Ground Ball%: 47.1%, tied 4th in MLB

That’s all pretty ugly to look at. The good news, as I’ve written before, is that there isn’t a lot of reason to expect it to continue through the rest of the season. But perhaps we should have known writers from the local paper would overreact to one loss in Cincinnati following an incredible homestand.

The simple explanation for the low BABIP is that they simply haven’t been hitting the ball very hard. That high ground ball rate and low line drive rate means a lot of easy outs for the opposing defense. Once the Brewers start hitting the ball with more authority — and with the hitters they have in the lineup, they will — the other numbers will start to turn around.

If there was good in Monday night’s loss to the Reds, it’s that the team was able to pound out 10 hits and only had two 1-2-3 innings. They’re starting to get guys on base, and they’re starting to score some runs. They even got unexpected offense from Carlos Gomez and Josh Wilson, which is the kind of good fortune they’ve been getting at Miller Park, but not on the road.

Even with the loss, the Brewers are still just 2.5 games behind the Cardinals for the Central division lead. The St. Louis offense has been scary good this year, especially on the road where they’re hitting .297/.367/.457 as a team. Those numbers are also being propped up by a .343 BABIP on the road. That’s just as unsustainable as the Brewers’ .257 BABIP on the road.

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