The other day, I mentioned that it looked like there were some preliminary PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus that had the Brewers winning an average of 85.5 games in their simulations.
Yesterday, the official numbers were released as part of the BP Depth Charts. In case you’re wondering how they arrive at the projections for team record, runs scored, triple slash line, etc., they use the projections for each player on the team (weighted for playing time) to “build up to” a projection for the team as a whole. Last year’s numbers weren’t pretty. This year’s are predictably better, although I’m sure not quite as optimistic as some fans are hoping. What you can see without a subscription:
- Projected record of 85-77 (2nd place in the Central, 2 GB of St. Louis for the division and Atlanta/Los Angeles for the Wildcard)
- 775 runs scored, 734 allowed (most RS, 2nd fewest RA in NL Central)
- .263/.333/.430 batting line as a team (highest SLG, 2nd highest OBP in NL Central)
If you have a BP subscription, you can see the numbers of individual players and more in-depth projections. Even without seeing how the sausage is made, so to speak, it’s fun to see the end product. If you want a point of comparison, the 2010 Brewers scored 750 runs while allowing 804. Definitely seems like an improvement, doesn’t it?